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In 2008, the race for the second U.S. women's berth into the Olympic beach volleyball tournament wasn't decided until a month before the Beijing Games. That won't be the case in 2012.
Jen Kessy and April Ross were the odd duo left out in '08, edged by compatriots Nicole Branagh and Elaine Youngs for the second American spot while Misty May-Treanor and Kerri Walsh took the first. Only two teams from one country per gender are allowed in the Olympics.
But after closing out 2011 -- the first year of London Olympic qualifying -- with a silver medal in Phuket, Kessy and Ross further strengthened their chances of an Olympic debut. Again, May-Treanor and Walsh have all but locked up the first U.S. spot.
A team's 12 best finishes on the FIVB World Tour determine its Olympic ranking, and after 14 events, Kessy and Ross rank fourth in the world. Their 12 best results are all seventh place or better (one 1st, three 2nd, three 3rd, two 5th, three 7th).
May-Treanor and Walsh are second in the rankings, 300 points behind Brazil's Larissa Franca and Juliana Silva -- ground they could make up to earn the Olympics' top seed. China's Xue Chen and Zhang Xi, who beat Kessy and Ross on Sunday for the Phuket title, are ranked third. Olympic qualifying runs through June 17, 2012.
The American team Kessy and Ross are fending off is Lauren Fendrick and Brooke Hanson, currently 10th in the Olympic rankings. With zero top 3 finishes this year, it's all but impossible for Fendrick and Hanson to rack up enough points to jump head of Kessy and Ross -- especially considering they'll only get about a month and half of qualifying next season, probably only four or five tournaments.
Rather, it will be the U.S. men who battle down to the wire for that second spot in London. Todd Rogers and Phil Dalhausser, No. 1 in the Olympic rankings, have locked down the first, but their fellow 2008 Olympians, Jake Gibb and Sean Rosenthal, are in a tight battle with compatriots Matt Fuerbringer and Nick Lucena.
Gibb and Rosenthal will enter 2012 at No. 9 in the Olympic rankings, 60 points behind No. 8 Fuerbringer and Lucena. Both duos had an up and down summer, so some solid performances next season could propel either team up the rankings. In other words, Fuerbringer/Lucena have to count a 25th-place result among their best 12, but an early-season fifth-place, for example, would erase that 25th and give them four 5ths to count.
Gibb and Rosenthal, meanwhile, don't have any 25ths among their top 12, but they do have five 17th-place results holding them back. The quicker they can post some top-10s, the better their odds of becoming two-time Olympians.
Enjoy the winter break, just 261 days until London kicks off.